As the 2030 deadline for the SDGs approaches and progress remains far off track, researchers are increasingly calling for reforms to the global sustainable development framework. This article argues that future proposals for a post-2030 agenda must go beyond adding new goals or targets, and instead be grounded in a clear “theory of change” that explains how real-world transformations will occur. By reconstructing the implicit logic behind the current SDGs, the authors identify key successes and shortcomings, and propose a systematic way to assess post-2030 proposals based on both their potential impact and political feasibility.
Guillaume Lafortune (SDSN) is a co-author of this article and, together with Katsia Paulavets, participated in a series of international workshops in Indonesia and Sweden over the past 18 months that informed this research.
This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of the AAAS for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Science on 15 January 2026, https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adz5704.